[Platform] [Fossil Fuels] Geophysical Research Letters: stabilizing climate requires near-zero emissions

[Nat Fortune]

LIMITING EMISSIONS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH

CLIMATE PROGRESS - Avoiding climate catastrophe will probably require
going to near-zero net emissions of greenhouse gases this century. That
is the conclusion of a new paper in Geophysical Research Letters. . .
Here is the abstract:

"Current international climate mitigation efforts aim to stabilize
levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. However, human-induced
climate warming will continue for many centuries, even after atmospheric
CO2 levels are stabilized. In this paper, we assess the CO2 emissions
requirements for global temperature stabilization within the next
several centuries, using an Earth system model of intermediate
complexity. We show first that a single pulse of carbon released into
the atmosphere increases globally averaged surface temperature by an
amount that remains approximately constant for several centuries, even
in the absence of additional emissions. We then show that to hold
climate constant at a given global temperature requires near-zero future
carbon emissions. Our results suggest that future anthropogenic
emissions would need to be eliminated in order to stabilize global-mean
temperatures. As a consequence, any future anthropogenic emissions will
commit the climate system to warming that is essentially irreversible on
centennial timescales."

[Among the findings]

- "Our results suggest that if emissions were eliminated entirely,
radiative forcing from atmospheric CO2 would decrease at a rate closely
matched by declining ocean heat uptake, with the result that while
future warming commitment may be negligible, atmospheric temperatures
may not decrease appreciably for at least 500 years.

- "We have shown here that stable global temperatures within the next
several centuries can be achieved if CO2 emissions are reduced to nearly
zero. This means that avoiding future human-induced climate warming may
require policies that seek not only to decrease CO2 emissions, but to
eliminate them entirely.

http://climateprogress.org/2008/02/28/stabilizing-climate-requires- 
near-zero-emissions/