[WestMALocals] State House News Poll on Romney, Rielly, Patrick and Governor's Race

[Nat Fortune]

>
> WEEKLY ROUNDUP: WEEK OF JULY 25, 2005 (Note that this analysis 
> replaces the regular Weekly Roundup this week.)
>
> By Craig Sandler
> STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE
>
> STATE HOUSE, BOSTON, JULY 28, 2005….This was the week it became valid 
> to write: “Romney, who’s not expected to run for re-election.” Because 
> now, no one expects him to.
>
> Mitt Romney could certainly still shock everyone – and no doubt 
> delight the Democrats – by announcing he and his anti-Roe position 
> will stand for another term.  But it is now safe to say that the whole 
> spectrum of Massachusetts politics would be stunned, and the latest 
> State House News Poll shows why.
>
> Romney adjusted his position on emergency contraception, and while he 
> was at it, abortion, to the same place he already was on embryonic 
> stem cell research: out of synch with Massachusetts voters, but more 
> closely aligned with American voters, and especially with Republican 
> presidential primary voters.
>
> On the matter immediately at hand, the emergency contraception bill 
> Romney vetoed Monday, the latest News Service poll showed respondents 
> supporting the bill 54 to 40 percent.  Romney said the measure 
> constitutes a form of abortion, and while “I understand that my views 
> on laws governing abortion set me in the minority in our Commonwealth 
> . . . I will honor the commitment I made during my campaign: While I 
> do not favor abortion, I will not change the state's abortion laws.”
>
> That statement was contained in a Boston Globe op-ed piece that put 
> the political community on notice just how far to the right on social 
> issues the governor has decided to shift.  Romney came out against the 
> Roe v. Wade decision, saying each state should have the right to 
> regulate abortion on its own.
>
> The veto and statement came after the polling was conducted July 
> 20-23, but State House News Pollster Gerry Chervinsky agreed with the 
> virtually unanimous conclusion: “This is a major, major statement as 
> Romney remakes himself into a right-wing conservative with appeal to 
> Republican primary voters nationwide.”
>
> Actually, on emergency contraception, Romney may be slightly more 
> conservative than the Massachusetts mainstream even within his own 
> party: “Interestingly, the bill, which was vetoed by Gov. Romney 
> shortly after polling was completed, is supported by Republicans (51 
> percent) just as much as by Independents (51 percent) and almost as 
> much as by Democrats (62 percent),” Chervinsky’s executive summary of 
> the poll points out.
>
> Chervinsky noted that the Legislature is expected to override Romney’s 
> veto of the bill, which passed by more than two-thirds majorities in 
> each branch.  He said the governor actually might weather his shift in 
> position rather well, in terms of people’s perception of his place in 
> their politics: “The citizens are less likely to take it out on Romney 
> because the Legislature is going to override Romney’s veto, and so 
> people aren’t going to bes directly affected by his position.  Plus, 
> 54-40 – it’s not that huge a spread.”
> As if to underscore the growing spread between the governor and his 
> current constituents on social issues, participants in the poll were 
> asked about how they’d vote if a referendum were held on the bill 
> recently passed to encourage the stem cell industry in Massachusetts, 
> in part by allowing therapeutic cloning.  Last week, Attorney General 
> Thomas Reilly ruled the matter could not appear on the 2006 ballot 
> because it would deal with “distinctively religious” subject matter.  
> The poll indicates voters were disinclined to repeal that law anyway, 
> and overwhelmingly disagree with the governor’s position.  By a 59-36 
> margin, respondents said they’d vote against repealing the law that 
> went on the books over the governor’s veto.
>
> Overall mood-of-the-populace numbers stayed reasonably steady, and 
> closely divided.  Participants said the state is “going in the right 
> direction” as opposed to “seriously off on the wrong track” by a 
> margin of 48-42 percent.  That’s a slight increase in “right 
> direction” from May.
>
> The governor’s job performance and personal approval both stayed about 
> the same – citizens were split about his performance as governor, with 
> 48 percent rating his job performance excellent or above average; 8 
> percent as average; and 43 percent as below average.  But his personal 
> favorability was 55 percent, compared to 37 percent of respondents who 
> said they view him unfavorably.
>
> Hypothetical matchups in the governor’s race yield little change, as 
> you’d expect in the summer of an off-election year.  Put succinctly: 
> Democrat Deval Patrick’s name recognition is rising slowly and his 
> favorability increased slightly, but the race remains principally a 
> battle between Romney and Reilly, and it’s statistically tied.
>
> The poll of 400 Mass. residents has a plus or minus 4.8 percent margin 
> of error.  Complete poll data are available at 
> www.statehousenewspoll.com
> - END -
>
> Need background about policy issues and the history of current news 
> stories? http://www.IssueSource.org
>
> www.statehousenews.com
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